The Creative Alliance, Strategic Marketing, Interactive, Public Relations

The Bureau of Unintended Consequences

Back in graduate school, I learned about a fascinating communications theory that had its roots in rural Iowa: diffusion, or the exploration of how new ideas spread.

Much of the original research behind diffusion was based on the introduction and adoption of hybrid seed corn in the Midwest during the 1930s. Within four years after hybrid corn was introduced, two-thirds of the farmers had changed to the new seed, largely based on the influence of their friends and neighbors.

There are a lot of reasons why some innovations succeed when others fail, including the relative advantage of the idea; its compatibility with existing societal values and norms and sometimes, existing technology; its complexity; how easy it is to use on a trial basis; and whether people can see the innovation in action and judge its results.

For example, Apple’s retail stores make it easy for people to determine the complexity of an iPad, iPod or MacBook. Putting the merchandise on display encourages people to try it before they buy, and lets them see it in action. These stores are often jam packed with people exploring Apple’s innovations.

Whether an innovation is “adopted,” or actually used, is also related to the communication channels involved in spreading the message:  mass media wins for building awareness, but it is usually word-of-mouth, including information from trusted friends and neighbors, that has the greatest influence on people who decide to adopt a new product or idea.

There are several categories of adopters: the innovators, who make up a mere 2 ½% of a typical population; the early adopters (13 ½%); the early majority (34%); the late majority (34%); and the laggards (10%). Everyone knows an innovator, the guy on the block who bought HD DVD before it was clobbered by Blu-Ray, who still argues the merits of Betamax vs. VHS.  Sometimes these folks are considered prescient; sometimes they just wind up with a garage full of junk. Clearly the majority of people wait awhile before deciding to adopt a new product.

Of course, once an innovation is adopted, it may not be used as intended.  Or, its use may spark unintended consequences that ripple through a society. The masterpiece on diffusion theory, “Diffusion of Innovations” by the late Everett Rogers, has several examples of innovations gone awry.

One of the more far-reaching was the introduction of snowmobiles among the Nordic indigenous peoples (“Sami,” formerly known as Laplanders) who hunted reindeer. From the first snowmobile, purchased in 1961 by a Finnish schoolteacher, this innovation was rapidly adopted with the number growing to 60 by 1963/64 and to 335 in a couple of more years. The adoption of the snowmobile had unintended consequences for the regional economy (fuel costs), the social structure (not everyone could afford to remain a herder, or cared to retain the knowledge of older practices), and the ecological backdrop (mechanization made it easier to slaughter more reindeer, decimating herds).

Sometimes unintended consequences create new opportunities. The introduction of hybrid seed corn in the 1930s helped create a cottage industry for detasseling – pulling off the tassel from certain rows of corn to encourage cross pollination with other rows, yielding an especially productive corn seed. Each summer legions of teenagers in the corn belt roam the fields, detasseling.

At The Creative Alliance, we work with you to diffuse your innovative ideas and products.  We’ll help you determine the best ways to move your target markets toward adoption, and we’ll help you anticipate possible unintended consequences, both positive and negative.